Macroeconomic effects on emerging-markets sovereign credit spreads

This paper investigates the explanatory and forecasting power of macroeconomic fundamentals on emerging market sovereign credit spreads. We pay special attention to a new set of macroeconomic factors related to market values that reflect investor expectations concerning future economic performance. The model we propose captures a significant part of the empirical variation in spreads. Importantly, it also includes a powerful forecasting component that extends up to 12 months outside the sample period. The forward-looking variables that we construct are significant and complement and enhance the explanatory content of the conventional variables found in the extant literature

Exploiting stochastic dominance to generate abnormal stock returns

We construct zero cost portfolios based on second and third degree stochastic dominance and show that they produce systematic, statistically significant, abnormal returns. These returns are robust with respect to the single index CAPM, the Fama-French 3-factor model, the Carhart 4-factor model and the liquidity 5-factor model. They are also robust with respect to momentum portfolios, transactions costs, varying time periods and when broken down by a range of risk factors, such as firm size, leverage, age, return volatility, cash flow volatility and trading volume

Stock and credit market expansion and economic development in emerging markets: further evidence utilizing cointegration analysis

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between equity and credit market development and economic growth, in a sample of five very important ‘emerging’ markets. In particular, employing a multivariate time-series methodology to test for long-run trends and causality between variables that proxy for stock market development, credit market development and economic development. The results seem to suggest that equity markets have a role to play only in relatively liberalized economies, like Chile and Mexico. In financially repressed economies, like India, the equity market does not affect real sector growth. Furthermore, the banking crises in the 1980s and 1990s in Chile and Mexico resulted in a negative relation between economic growth and the credit market. In South Korea, equity and credit markets both affect economic growth, but not vice versa. In countries where the nature of the stock market has been speculative, like Taiwan, a negative relationship is detected between equity market development and economic development.

Making inefficient market indices efficient

This paper uses the concept of Marginal Conditional Stochastic Dominance and a generalization of the 50% Portfolio Rule to develop a tractable and parsimonious methodology for constructing a second degree Stochastic Dominance (SSD) efficient portfolio from a given, inefficient index. Because the SSD approach considers the entire probability distributions of asset returns, the resulting portfolios are efficient with respect to all risk-averse, utility-maximizing investors regardless of the form of their utility functions or the distributions of asset returns.Finance Investment analysis Stochastic Dominance